The Illusion Of Osun: Why Nigeria Cannot Afford To Relax Ahead Of 2027, By SKC Ogbonnia | Sahara Reporters

The main gist is that the victory of Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party over the candidate of the All-Progressives Alliance (APC) must not be seen as an electoral Eldorado for the 2027 elections. Yes, it is indeed joyous to see the streets of Osun erupt in well-deserved celebration over the defeat of a candidate heavily backed by President Bola Tinubu and his heavy contingent of state governors. But Nigerians must not mistake this localized outcome as a testament for a guaranteed free and fair general election in 2027.

In the theater of Nigerian politics, nothing is ever exactly as it seems. Events suggest that this victory is merely a masterclass in political deception—a calculated tactical concession designed to lull the nation into a fatal sense of security and democratic maturity. Knowing Tinubu, as we have come to know him, 2027 is a ruthless, do-or-die affair. Thus, it makes sense to picture this pseudo-democratic display as nothing more than a smoke screen.

The script for this dangerous illusion was written and performed just days before the election. In a chilling deployment of state terror, the EFCC first tested the Nigerian resolve by freezing the Osun State government’s accounts barely ten days before the vote. By directly targeting civil servant salaries, the sole aim was to completely break the state’s back. This was a classic experiment in public tolerance.

But Nigerians were prepared. Yes! When a massive wave of public rage rattled the political establishment, Tinubu smoothly stepped onto the stage to play the savior. He engineered a dazzling optical maneuver by instructing his graft agency to suddenly unfreeze the funds. This apparent gaslighting successfully shifted the narrative from raw state-sponsored intimidation to artificial presidential magnanimity. In the process, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu manufactured a fake atmosphere of fair play just in time for the polls. And the world bought the bunkum.

Of course, we have walked this deceptive path straight into a trap before. Recall the 2022 Osun gubernatorial election, where Nigerians showered the regime of Muhammadu Buhari with grand kudos for organizing a seemingly transparent contest. That single local victory would later heavily blind the nation, making us relax into a dangerous comfort. Yet, that very same institutional machinery went on to weaponize the 2023 polls, delivering what remains arguably the most violently compromised and worst presidential election in Nigeria’s democratic history. True!

So, if Muhammadu Buhari could completely circumvent all critical electoral laws to guarantee a successor from his party despite the heavy, undeniable baggages of Candidate Bola Tinubu, one can only imagine the dark path President Tinubu himself is determined to travel to remain in power. Having presided over a regime that has plunged the nation into the deepest economic abyss and democratic decay in our contemporary history, Tinubu knows that 2027 is a matter of absolute political survival. This point is that the resources, raw influence, and state apparatus deployed in Osun are nothing compared to the absolute firestorm that will be unleashed when the presidency itself is on the line. Letting the opposition win a state is a cheap price for Tinubu to pay if it makes the entire nation lower its guard before the real war begins.

The grand deception has actually begun. Tinubu’s lavish, overwhelming flattery of Governor Adeleke for his victory is a textbook example of political theater. It is nothing more than an orchestrated mirage designed to blind the Nigerian electorate. By showering the opposition’s victory with such exaggerated, public praise, the presidency is exploiting a false narrative of absolute INEC neutrality. The goal is to hypnotize the masses into a dangerous psychological trap ahead of 2027. The loud singing of the “free and fair” song is a Trojan horse aimed at disarming opposition vigilance and sanitizing the image of a compromised system. The Nigerian people must not swallow this glittering bait. The massive praise is a tactical illusion, and absolute, unyielding vigilance is the only shield against the looming electoral ambush of 2027.

Therefore, this result must not be celebrated as an eternal victory; it must be treated as a loud, ringing alarm bell. We must not rely on the institutional neutrality of a captured electoral body . We must not expect a ruthless ruling elite to willingly yield power based on democratic ideals. Anything less is a form of political suicide.

Nevertheless, Nigerians owe immense gratitude to the vigilant voters of Osun State. These voters demonstrated fierce determination by guarding their ballots all the way to the collation centers to protect their choice. The Nigerian entertainers ought to follow this powerful example by emulating Davido’s explosive campaign presence. They should heighten pro-democracy and anti-bad governance tunes that center on the current administration’s leadership. By uniting their voices into powerful anthems, these cultural icons can inspire millions of citizens to actively reclaim their role in shaping Nigeria’s future. To secure this future before 2027, civil society and citizens must mobilize beyond online complaints. We must build unbreakable grassroots structures to demand absolute electoral transparency and safeguard the collective will across all thirty-six states.

The lesson of history is clear: the price of liberty remains eternal vigilance, and power concedes nothing without a fierce demand. If the citizens of Nigeria relax now, believing the road to 2027 has been made smooth, we will wake up to a highly organized political execution that cannot be undone. True democratic resilience means recognizing the establishment’s traps for exactly what they are, standing unshakeable, and preparing to resist any attempt to subvert our future with every ounce of our collective strength.

SKC Ogbonnia, a leadership scholar, writes from Houston, TX, USA.