Nigeria’s election campaign begins with Tinubu facing a reform test
Oyedele’s struggle captures the political dilemma facing President Bola Tinubu as Nigeria moves towards the 2027 presidential election: whether voters will judge his reforms by their long-term promises or by the immediate economic pain they have endured.
Tinubu removed the fuel subsidy shortly after taking office in 2023 and introduced foreign-exchange reforms that allowed the naira to trade more freely, arguing that the measures were necessary to strengthen public finances, attract investment, and stabilise Africa’s largest economy.
The reforms won support from investors and economists who had long argued that Nigeria needed to address deep structural problems in its economy. But the benefits of such reforms are typically slower to reach households than the costs they create.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Nigeria’s reforms had improved macroeconomic stability, but warned that living conditions remained difficult for many citizens. For many households, the immediate impact has been higher food prices, rising transport costs and declining purchasing power.
That is a much harder political proposition when people have already made significant sacrifices.
For Tinubu, the political test is not only defending his reforms. It is persuading voters to endure their costs before they feel their benefits.
Tinubu’s government points to improving economic indicators as evidence that the reforms are beginning to work.
But many Nigerians experience the economy through what they pay for food, transport and basic household needs.
Tinubu enters the race facing dissatisfaction over the economy and insecurity, but the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) retains one of its biggest advantages: organisation.
The APC controls the federal government and has built one of Nigeria’s most extensive political networks, giving Tinubu an advantage in grassroots mobilisation.
Ojeniyi said those networks matter because Nigerian elections are fought through local political structures as much as national campaigns.
I think there is a danger of viewing the 2027 election purely as a referendum on Tinubu. It is also a referendum on the quality of Nigeria’s political opposition and, more broadly, on whether our democracy is producing meaningful choices for citizens.
For voters such as Oyedele and Thomas Eneji, the election will ultimately be judged by whether daily life improves, not by political promises.