As campaigns begin in Nigeria, Tinubu’s re-election bid puts his party on trial
ABUJA, Aug 19 – As campaigning for January’s elections begins on Wednesday, President Bola Tinubu’s pitch for a second term faces a politically fraught question: are Nigerians better off after more than a decade of rule by his All Progressives Congress?
The main challengers argue the APC’s nearly 12 years in power have left Africa’s most populous country poorer, more indebted and no safer than when the party swept into office in 2015, then under the leadership of Muhammadu Buhari.
NEARLY 80% SAY NIGERIA HEADING IN WRONG DIRECTION
For Tinubu, nicknamed “T-Pain” by many Nigerians grappling with soaring living costs, the election will test whether voters are willing to endure short-term pain for the promise of longer-term gains.
So far, many appear unconvinced.
“The APC’s tenure from 2015 to 2026 makes for unhappy reading and Tinubu’s reforms have particularly brought severe pain,” Cheta Nwanze, a partner at Nigeria-based risk advisory SBM Intelligence, said.
“Our voter tracker shows nearly 80% of Nigerians say the country is headed in the wrong direction with 45% citing economic hardship and insecurity as their top concern.”
Few Nigerian presidents have moved as quickly on economic policy as Tinubu. He scrapped a costly decades-old fuel subsidy and twice devalued the naira.
The gap between improving economic indicators and worsening household finances is likely to define the campaign.
Tinubu’s challenge is compounded by the risk that voters will not only judge him on his own record. They will also be looking back at his predecessor’s legacy.
He inherited an economy moulded by Buhari, whom he helped propel to power.
Tinubu enters the election campaign weighed down by his record and his party’s, with the opposition arguing that after more than a decade in power, only results now matter.
For many voters, the election may hinge on whether life is safer and more affordable now than when the APC first promised change in 2015.
“The data tells us the odds are against Tinubu and the only way back is low voter turnout on election day,” Nwanze said. “However, the opposition remains disunited, which historically have favoured the incumbent.”