As campaigns begin in Nigeria, Tinubu’s re-election bid puts his party on trial

As campaigning for January’s elections begins on Wednesday, President Bola Tinubu’s pitch for a second term faces a politically fraught question: are Nigerians better off after more than a decade of rule by his All Progressives Congress?

For Tinubu, nicknamed “T-Pain” by many Nigerians grappling with soaring living costs, the election will test whether voters are willing to endure short-term pain for the promise of longer-term gains.

So far, many appear unconvinced.

“The APC’s tenure from 2015 to 2026 makes for unhappy reading and Tinubu’s reforms have particularly brought severe pain,” Cheta Nwanze, a partner at Nigeria-based risk advisory SBM Intelligence, said.

“Our voter tracker shows nearly 80% of Nigerians say the country is headed in the wrong direction with 45% citing economic hardship and insecurity as their top concern.”

Few Nigerian presidents have moved as quickly on economic policy as Tinubu. He scrapped a costly decades-old fuel subsidy and twice devalued the naira.

The reforms delivered changes long sought by investors and international lenders, but also unleashed a shock across households, fuelling protests and what many Nigerians describe as the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation.

Tinubu has defended the measures as necessary to unwind years of state intervention.

His government cites higher revenues and stronger investor interest as signs the reforms are working.

“Since 2023, our reforms have restored stability and credibility to economic management,” he said during a recent broadcast.

Many voters, however, judge the economy less by macroeconomic gains than by the cost of putting food on the table.

Living standards have also deteriorated. GDP per capita fell 53% to $1,224 currently from $2,586 in 2015, World Bank data show, highlighting a decade-long erosion of household prosperity.

“For ordinary Nigerians, this election is fundamentally about survival, security … whether families can afford food, whether farmers can safely return to their farms,” Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, head of CISLAC/Transparency International Nigeria, said.

The APC swept to power more than a decade ago pledging to defeat Islamist insurgents, curb corruption, and revive an economy hit by low oil prices. Instead, Nigeria slipped into its first recession in 25 years under Buhari, while inflation hit record highs above 33% and growth remained sluggish.

Tinubu enters the election campaign weighed down by his record and his party’s, with the opposition arguing that after more than a decade in power, only results now matter.

For many voters, the election may hinge on whether life is safer and more affordable now than when the APC first promised change in 2015.

“The data tells us the odds are against Tinubu and the only way back is low voter turnout on election day,” Nwanze said. “However, the opposition remains disunited, which historically have favoured the incumbent.”