Inflation could have hit 42.81% without policy interventions – CBN

The Central Bank of Nigeria has said that without its policy interventions, inflation could have surged to 42.81 per cent by December 2024.

It also projected that diaspora remittances would rise to N31.79tn when fourth-quarter figures for 2024 are released.

Going forward, the apex bank has pledged to stick to orthodox monetary policies to tame inflation in 2025.

The CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, made these disclosures in Abuja on Thursday at the 2025 Monetary Policy Forum, which brought together ministers, heads of economic agencies, and private sector players.

He stated that counterfactual estimates suggest that without decisive policy interventions, inflation could have reached 42.81 per cent by December 2024.

He further noted that throughout 2024, the CBN implemented bold policy measures across six Monetary Policy Committee meetings, including raising the Monetary Policy Rate by 875 basis points to 27.50 per cent, increasing the Cash Reserve Ratio for Other Depository Corporations by 1,750 basis points to 50.00 per cent, and adjusting the asymmetric corridor around the MPR.

Cardoso said, “Counterfactual estimates suggest that without these decisive policy interventions, inflation could have reached 42.81 per cent by December 2024.”

He added, “Throughout 2024, the Bank implemented several bold policy measures across six MPC meetings, including raising the Monetary Policy Rate by a cumulative 875 basis points to 27.50 per cent, increasing the Cash Reserve Ratio of Other Depository Corporations by 1,750 basis points to 50.00 per cent, and adjusting the asymmetric corridor around the MPR.”

Cardoso highlighted that the CBN implemented critical foreign exchange reforms to enhance market efficiency.

The unification of multiple exchange rate windows contributed to a 79.4 per cent rise in remittances via International Money Transfer Operators to $4.18bn in the first three quarters of 2024, up from $2.33bn in the same period in 2023.

Other major FX-related interventions included clearing a $7bn FX backlog, which restored market confidence and improved FX liquidity, lifting restrictions on 41 items previously banned from access to the official FX market since 2015, and introducing new minimum capital requirements for banks, effective March 2026, to enhance resilience and global competitiveness in the sector.

The apex bank also launched the WIFI initiative under the National Financial Inclusion Strategy, aimed at bridging the gender gap in financial access by empowering women with financial services, education, and digital tools.

Also, the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Code was introduced to ensure integrity, transparency, and efficiency in the FX market.

Cardoso described the code as a binding commitment by the financial sector to rebuild trust and boost confidence.

He said these reforms reflect the CBN’s commitment to creating an enabling environment for inclusive economic development, adding that achieving macroeconomic stability requires sustained vigilance and a proactive monetary policy stance.

On inflation, the CBN Governor warned that managing disinflation amid persistent shocks would require strong policy coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities.

He stated that the focus must remain on price stability, the planned transition to an inflation-targeting framework, and strategies to restore purchasing power and ease economic hardship.

He expressed optimism that Nigeria had turned a corner and that disinflation was within reach but stressed the need for bold and coordinated policy measures to consolidate progress.

Cardoso noted that global capital flows to emerging markets could improve as advanced economies ease monetary policies.

However, he stressed that Nigeria’s ability to attract inflows would depend on investor confidence in domestic reforms, macroeconomic stability, and positive real returns on investment.

He reiterated that the CBN’s transition from unorthodox to orthodox monetary policies was aimed at restoring confidence, strengthening policy credibility, and prioritising price stability.

Encouragingly, he said, FX liquidity is improving, and the naira is gradually aligning with market fundamentals, creating a more predictable environment for production, exports, and essential imports.

Speaking earlier, CBN Deputy Governor, Economic Policy,
Mohammed Sani Abdullahi said the liberalisation of the FX market was a crucial step in unifying the fragmented system and reducing speculative-driven premiums.

He noted that before the adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime, the average FX premium stood at 62.33 per cent between January and May 2023.

However, following the reform, the premium dropped to 0.10 per cent by June 2023, indicating significant progress towards market convergence.

Abdullahi said, “Prior to the adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime, the average exchange rate premium stood at an alarming 62.33 per cent between January and May 2023.

“With the introduction of the flexible exchange rate regime, this premium was drastically reduced to an all-time low of 0.10 per cent by June 2023, signalling significant progress towards market convergence.”

The deputy governor revealed that diaspora remittances rose from N12.48tn in 2023 to N22.73tn by Q3 2024, and are projected to hit N31.79tn when full-year data is released.

Despite these gains, Abdullahi acknowledged that disinflation efforts had been hindered by persistent supply and demand shocks, making it difficult to achieve a single-digit inflation target.

He noted that these shocks, among other factors, necessitated decisive policy actions to prevent entrenched inflationary expectations.

He added that this highlighted the critical importance of sustained communication and engagement with stakeholders, a commitment exemplified by the forum.