IATA projects $41bn global airline profit in 2026

Airlines are projected to post a combined net profit of $41bn in 2026, up from $39.5bn in 2025, according to industry forecasts by the International Air Transport Association.

Despite the record earnings, the global airline industry’s net profit margin is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9 per cent, while net profit per passenger transported is forecast at $7.90, below the 2023 peak of $8.50 and flat compared with 2025.

“Airlines are expected to generate a 3.9 per cent net margin and a $41bn profit in 2026,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director-General. “That’s extremely welcome news considering the headwinds that the industry faces, rising costs from bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, geopolitical conflict, sluggish global trade, and growing regulatory burdens, among others.

“Airlines have successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses that is delivering stable profitability,” he added.

Operating profit is expected to rise to $72.8bn in 2026 from $67.0bn in 2025, translating to a net operating margin of 6.9 per cent, compared with the 6.6 per cent projected for 2025.

Return on invested capital is forecast to remain at 6.8 per cent, unchanged from the previous year.

However, IATA noted that ROIC will still fall below the weighted average cost of capital, estimated at 8.2 per cent in 2026, despite improved operating performance and ongoing deleveraging.

“Industry-level margins are still a pittance considering the value that airlines create by connecting people and economies,” Walsh said.

“They stand at the core of a value chain that underpins nearly four per cent of the global economy and supports 87 million jobs. Yet Apple will earn more selling an iPhone cover than the $7.90 airlines will make transporting the average passenger.

“Imagine the additional power that airlines could bring to economies if we could rebalance value chain profitability, reduce regulatory and tax burdens, and alleviate infrastructure inefficiencies.”

Total industry revenues are projected to reach $1.053tn in 2026, representing a 4.5 per cent increase over the $1.008tn expected in 2025.

Load factors are also forecast to hit record highs, with airlines expected to fill 83.8 per cent of seats globally in 2026.

Passenger traffic is projected to climb to 5.2 billion in 2026, up 4.4 per cent year-on-year, while cargo volumes are expected to rise by 2.4 per cent to 71.6 million tonnes.

IATA said air cargo performance remains a key bright spot, having outperformed gloomy forecasts amid shifting global trade dynamics.

“As trade flows adapt to a protectionist US tariff regime, air cargo has been the hero of global trade, buoyed in part by robust e-commerce and semiconductor shipments to support the boom in AI investments,” Walsh added.

“Notably, air cargo enabled front-loading to deliver products ahead of tariff deadlines, and it flexibly accommodated demand surges as tariffed goods normally destined for the US found new markets. The critical role of air cargo is front and centre as the global economy adjusts to new realities.”