Fractured Opposition Battles Nigeria’s Tinubu as Presidential Campaigns Begin

Nigeria on Wednesday kicked off campaigns for the presidential election scheduled in January, with incumbent President Bola Tinubu seeking reelection against a fractured opposition.

Africa’s most populous country will hold the election against a backdrop of worsening economic and security crises that have caused anger among voters against Tinubu’s government.

The presidential vote will be held Jan. 16 alongside parliamentary elections, while gubernatorial elections will be held Feb. 6.

Tinubu is challenged by 18 opposition candidates but analysts predict a three-man race, including the two top contenders that he defeated in 2023. They are former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress, a serial presidential candidate, and Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, a former state governor who blew the last race wide open with his mass appeal to Nigeria’s youth.

Historically, the ruling party in Nigeria’s presidential elections usually has a higher chance of winning when the race features more than one prominent opposition candidate.

Tinubu was elected president in 2023 after campaigning on promises to build on his predecessor’s efforts to deliver democratic dividends to citizens in a country grappling with deadly security crises, corruption in the government, and widespread poverty and hunger.

Nigeria’s challenges, notwithstanding, analysts say the split opposition could give Tinubu a higher chance of winning as was the case in 2023. In that year’s election, Tinubu emerged ahead of multiple prominent opposition candidates but recorded one of the lowest vote percentages ever for an elected president, showing how unpopular he was.

Tinubu has also shored up his support base through the defections of erstwhile opposition figures, with 31 of Nigeria’s 36 state governors now members of his party, the ruling All Progressives Congress.

The defections had prompted fears of a one-party state, which the national government denied.

No matter how bad things are, Tinubu will still win because they are not working together.

said Juliet Onah, a resident in the capital of Abuja, referring to the opposition candidates not uniting as one front.