Food inflation hits 12.12% as input costs soar

Nigeria’s food inflation rate rose to 12.12 per cent year-on-year in February 2026, reversing the single-digit level recorded in January and signalling renewed pressure on household food costs.

Data from the Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that the indicator increased from 8.89 per cent in January 2026 to 12.12 per cent in February, representing a rise of 3.23 percentage points. The February figure pushed food inflation back into double-digit territory after January’s sharp slowdown, which had marked the first single-digit reading in more than a decade.

Despite the increase from the previous month, the latest figure remains significantly lower than the level recorded a year earlier. According to the NBS report, “The Food inflation rate in February 2026 was 12.12 per cent on a year-on-year basis. This was 14.86 percentage points lower compared to the rate recorded in February 2025 (26.98 per cent).”

On a month-on-month basis, food prices rose by 4.69 per cent in February, reflecting a resurgence in short-term price pressures across food markets. The statistics office attributed the increase to rising prices of several staple items across the country.

The report stated that the surge was “attributed to the rate of increase in the average prices of Beans, Carrots, Okazi Leaf, Cassava Tuber, Crayfish, Millet Flour, Yam Flour, Snails, Avenger (Ogbono/Apon) – dried ungrinded, cow peas, etc.”

Farmers explained that the high cost of inputs drove the rise in the prices of food, as they called for intervention from the government to curb the spike in food prices across the country.

While the monthly rebound suggests volatility in food markets, longer-term indicators point to a substantial easing in food price growth compared with the previous year. The NBS said the average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending February 2026 stood at 19.08 per cent, representing a sharp drop from 37.40 per cent recorded in February 2025.

According to the report, “The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending February 2026 over the previous twelve-month average was 19.08 per cent, which was 18.31 percentage points lower compared with the average annual rate of change recorded in February 2025 (37.40 per cent).”

State-level data showed significant variations in food price movements across the country. On a year-on-year basis, Kogi recorded the highest food inflation rate at 26.91 per cent, followed by Adamawa at 23.12 per cent and Benue at 21.89 per cent.

Conversely, Katsina recorded the slowest increase in food prices at 5.09 per cent, while Bauchi and Imo posted 7.09 per cent and 7.65 per cent, respectively. On a month-on-month basis, Bayelsa recorded the highest increase in food prices at 8.81 per cent, followed by Ebonyi at 8.51 per cent and Edo at 7.72 per cent.

Meanwhile, Katsina recorded a slight decline in food inflation at minus 0.70 per cent, while Nasarawa and Kano recorded increases of 0.17 per cent and 1.39 per cent, respectively. The February CPI report also showed that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased slightly during the period.

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined marginally to 15.06 per cent in February 2026, from 15.10 per cent in January. The report stated, “In February 2026, the Headline inflation rate eased to 15.06 per cent, down from 15.10 per cent in January 2026,” indicating a slight moderation in the pace of price increases across the economy.

Data from the report showed that the Consumer Price Index rose to 130.0 in February 2026 from 127.4 in January, reflecting a 2.6-point increase within the month. The CPI measures the average change over time in the prices of goods and services consumed by households.

According to the bureau, the inflation rate also declined sharply on a year-on-year basis. “The February 2026 Headline inflation rate was 11.21 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in February 2025 (26.27 per cent),” the report noted.

However, despite the yearly slowdown, prices rose faster on a monthly basis. The NBS said the month-on-month inflation rate stood at 2.01 per cent in February 2026, compared with a decline of 2.88 per cent recorded in January.

“This means that in February 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in January 2026,” the bureau explained.

The statistics office further noted that food prices remained the largest driver of inflation, accounting for the highest contribution to the headline index. Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed 6.03 percentage points to overall inflation, followed by restaurants and accommodation services at 1.95 percentage points and transport at 1.61 percentage points.

Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels accounted for 1.27 percentage points, while education services contributed 0.93 percentage points to the headline index. Urban inflation remained slightly higher than rural inflation during the period under review.

On a year-on-year basis, urban inflation stood at 15.53 per cent in February 2026, significantly lower than the 28.49 per cent recorded in February 2025. On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate increased to 2.55 per cent from a decline of 2.72 per cent in January.

The NBS stated that rural inflation also declined on a yearly basis but rose compared with the previous month. Rural inflation was recorded at 13.93 per cent year-on-year in February 2026, compared with 22.73 per cent in February 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation increased to 0.71 per cent in February, up from a decline of 3.29 per cent recorded in January. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, also declined on a yearly basis.

According to the report, core inflation stood at 15.88 per cent year-on-year in February 2026, compared with 25.66 per cent recorded in February 2025. On a month-on-month basis, however, the core inflation rate rose to 0.89 per cent, from a decline of 1.69 per cent in January.

The NBS added that the twelve-month average inflation rate for the period ending February 2026 increased to 21.03 per cent, compared with 18.01 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.

State-level analysis in the report showed wide variations in price movements across the country. On a year-on-year basis, Kogi recorded the highest all-items inflation rate at 23.57 per cent, followed by Benue at 22.85 per cent and Anambra at 22.09 per cent.

Conversely, Katsina recorded the lowest inflation rate at 7.78 per cent, followed by Imo at 11.66 per cent and Ebonyi at 11.71 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, Enugu recorded the highest inflation increase at 5.92 per cent, followed by Ogun at 4.39 per cent and Anambra at 4.11 per cent.

Meanwhile, Zamfara recorded the steepest decline in monthly inflation at minus 2.14 per cent, followed by Bauchi at minus 1.23 per cent and Katsina at minus 1.06 per cent. The bureau noted that inflation comparisons across states should be interpreted carefully because consumption patterns and weights used in calculating the CPI differ across locations.

The PUNCH earlier reported in February 2026 that farmers across the country might scale down or completely boycott the upcoming planting season as rising input costs and falling produce prices continue to squeeze profit margins.

The President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, Mohammed Magaji, said many farmers are already reconsidering their participation in this year’s farming cycle due to mounting losses.

“It’s very bad in the sense that the farmers will not go to farm again. Most of the farmers we are talking to now are saying they will not go to farm this time around; they will wait and buy. What does it mean? It has a lot of implications,” Magaji said.

However, members of the Organised Private Sector warned that the marginal easing in headline inflation offers little relief to businesses and households, citing persistent increases in food and energy costs.

In separate interviews with The PUNCH, OPS members said the improvement in inflation was too small to make a meaningful difference to business operations or the cost of living.

The President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, said the slight drop in inflation was largely driven by seasonal demand factors rather than structural improvements in the economy.

Egbesola said, “I think the reason for the marginal reduction in the inflation rates is well imagined, and I think it’s because you would agree that until this recent time, there’s been some stability in effects, which definitely would drive down inflation. At the same time, we are now in the post-holiday season, so demand has reduced because the Christmas and New Year period has passed, and purchases are not very tight.”

He stressed that the marginal decline was not enough to warrant celebration among small and medium-sized enterprises. “For us as Small and Medium Enterprises, I don’t think it is a call for celebration yet because the reduction is still very marginal, and of course, the major driver of inflation, which is food, is still there, and energy costs remain high. Food and energy are big issues for SMEs, and they are still high,” he said.

Egbesola added that the current inflation figures have not translated into relief for businesses or households. “At the moment, this is not reflecting in businesses, this is not reflecting in the livelihood of the common man on the streets, and this is not reflecting in the prices of goods, commodities, and services. Prices continue to go higher, particularly with the recent increase in fuel prices,” he lamented.

He urged the government to strengthen monetary policy measures to ensure inflation moderates further and begins to benefit businesses. “The government needs to firm up monetary policies so that they can maintain this inflation rate and possibly get it reduced further. That is the only way we can begin to see a trickle of benefits. We should not be celebrating on paper or in surveys; the results should reflect in the realities of businesses and the lives of citizens,” Egbesola said.

He also warned that rising global energy prices linked to tensions in the Middle East could push inflation higher in the coming months. “Yes, we foresee an increase in inflation in March driven by the war going on in the Middle East. We are already seeing the effect in terms of the cost of energy and even the cost of inputs that are imported from other countries, and it will reflect in the March report,” he said.

Egbesola urged businesses to reduce dependence on imported inputs. “It is also a warning for businesses not to relax yet. We need to buckle up and see how we can do backward integration to begin to use things that we have locally rather than depending more on imported goods, raw materials, or inputs,” he added.

Also commenting, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, described the drop in headline inflation as statistically insignificant.

Yusuf said, “The decrease in headline inflation is very marginal, which is not significant; it is as good as saying that there is no material change in it. Generally, at about 15 per cent, we can say that inflation is still rather elevated.”

He expressed concern about the rise in food inflation, noting that the return to double-digit levels signals persistent structural challenges. “If food inflation has jumped from single digits to about 12 per cent, then that should be concerning because we were celebrating the fact that food inflation was in single digits in January. That means we still have some challenges to deal with, especially insecurity and logistics costs,” Yusuf said.

He added that insecurity and high transportation costs continue to constrain agricultural productivity and food supply. “Productivity levels are still low, largely because of insecurity and some structural issues. Even the importation of food that helped temporarily was only a momentary intervention,” he said.

Yusuf also warned that rising energy prices could intensify inflationary pressures in the coming months. “Energy cost is a major factor in inflation. Each time we have a spike in energy cost, it increases inflation, so in March, we are likely to see the impact of this current energy crisis that we are facing and a much higher inflationary pressure,” he said.

While acknowledging the decline in core inflation, he stressed that broader structural challenges still pose risks to price stability. “The stability of the exchange rate has helped to moderate core inflation, but generally we still need to worry about what is happening to food inflation because the spike from single digits to double digits is significant,” Yusuf added.