Aviation growth crashes to 2.88% as airfares soar

Aviation sector growth crashed to 2.88 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, even as passengers grapple with high airfares, latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics have shown.

The NBS Gross Domestic Product report for Q3 2025 indicated that the nominal year-on-year growth rate of air transport fell sharply to 2.88 per cent, down from 30.60 per cent in the second quarter and 57.21 per cent in the first quarter of the year.

Despite the weaker growth rate, the value of output in the sector rose. Air transport GDP at current basic prices increased from N78.71bn in Q3 2024 to N80.98bn in Q3 2025. In Q1, the sector expanded from N67.28bn in 2024 to N105.77bn in 2025, while Q2 moved from N28.59bn to N37.35bn over the same period.

A quarter-on-quarter review for 2025 shows how volatile the industry has been. The size of the sector dropped by about 64.7 per cent between Q1 and Q2, from N105.77bn to N37.35bn. It then more than doubled between Q2 and Q3, with output jumping by about 116.8 per cent to N80.98bn.

However, because the comparison for growth is made against the same quarters of 2024, the year-on-year nominal growth rate still fell from 57.21 per cent in Q1 to 30.60 per cent in Q2 and 2.88 per cent in Q3.

The data also show that air transport’s share of the total economy remains very small and slightly lower than a year earlier. The sector accounted for 0.07 per cent of total GDP in Q3 2025, compared with 0.08 per cent in Q3 2024. Its share had stood at 0.11 per cent in Q1 2025 and 0.04 per cent in Q2.

By contrast, the wider economy continued to expand in nominal terms. GDP at current basic prices rose from N96.16tn in Q3 2024 to N113.59tn in Q3 2025. The quarterly figures for the whole economy also climbed from N79.51tn to N94.05tn between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, and from N84.48tn to N100.73tn between Q2 2024 and Q2 2025.

Real growth numbers for aviation confirm that the sector has moved from deep contraction to modest expansion, even though momentum has eased.

Air transport real GDP growth was negative throughout 2024, at –9.51 per cent in Q1, –11.18 per cent in Q2, and –9.90 per cent in Q3. In 2025, the sector returned to positive territory, posting –0.81 per cent in Q1, 6.34 per cent in Q2, and 1.60 per cent in Q3.

Taken together, the NBS figures show an aviation industry that recorded very strong year-on-year nominal growth at the start of 2025 but saw that growth rate collapse to 2.88 per cent by Q3, even though output and its contribution to GDP remained above 2024 levels.

The slowdown comes at a time when travellers are contending with high ticket prices, raising questions about how long the sector can sustain growth amid elevated costs and pressured demand.

In a bid to tackle this, the Senate recently summoned the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, and major players in the aviation sector for an emergency interface following nationwide outrage over the drastic surge in domestic airfare ahead of the festive season.

The resolution was prompted by a motion sponsored by Senator Buhari Abdulfatai, who raised the alarm that the soaring ticket prices threaten national mobility and could severely disrupt end-of-year travel plans for millions of Nigerians.

The upper chamber’s intervention comes amid reports that one-way tickets on several domestic routes—especially flights heading to the South-South and South-East—have skyrocketed by as much as 200 per cent, with fares now crossing the N300,000 mark. Before the Yuletide rush, tickets on the same routes averaged around N120,000.

A recent market check on airlines’ websites confirmed that some fares had climbed by over 150 per cent compared to pre-holiday prices, worsening concerns among travellers already grappling with inflation and rising transport costs.

During plenary, Senator Buhari relayed mounting complaints from Nigerians who say domestic air travel is fast becoming unaffordable. He noted that a one-way ticket from Abuja to Lagos now ranges between N400,000 and N600,000—an amount many citizens “can no longer afford” at a time when insecurity and poor road conditions have made air travel the preferred option.

“We need to invite stakeholders of our airline agencies to interact and interrogate these issues. Immediate steps must be taken before the festive period,” he said.