Analysis: As campaigns begin in Nigeria, Tinubu’s re-election bid puts his party on trial

As campaigning for January’s elections begins on Wednesday, President Bola Tinubu’s pitch for a second term faces a politically fraught question: are Nigerians better off after more than a decade of rule by his All Progressives Congress?

The main challengers argue the APC’s nearly 12 years in power have left Africa’s most populous country poorer, more indebted and no safer than when the party swept into office in 2015, then under Muhammadu Buhari.

For Tinubu, nicknamed “T-Pain” by many Nigerians grappling with soaring living costs, the election will test whether voters are willing to endure short-term pain for the promise of longer-term gains.

“Now I struggle to sell two, sometimes just one,” one citizen told Reuters. “It is difficult to make a profit and feed my family.”

Tinubu inherited an economy moulded by Buhari, whom he helped propel to power. Buhari’s interventionist agenda included import curbs, currency controls, border closures and a fuel subsidy that cost the government billions. Yet violence remains widespread, and the election will be about survival, security, and food.