Nigeria’s election campaign begins with Tinubu facing a reform test

Abuja, Nigeria – Every morning, Shukurat Oyedele unlocks her small plastic goods shop near Offa Garage in Ilorin, north-central Nigeria, even when she expects few customers.

Oyedele’s struggle captures the political dilemma facing President Bola Tinubu as Nigeria moves towards the 2027 presidential election: whether voters will judge his reforms by their long-term promises or by the immediate economic pain they have endured.

Tinubu removed the fuel subsidy shortly after taking office in 2023 and introduced foreign-exchange reforms that allowed the naira to trade more freely, arguing that the measures were necessary to strengthen public finances, attract investment, and stabilise Africa’s largest economy.

The reforms won support from investors and economists who had long argued that Nigeria needed to address deep structural problems in its economy. But the benefits of such reforms are typically slower to reach households than the costs they create.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Nigeria’s reforms had improved macroeconomic stability, but warned that living conditions remained difficult for many citizens. For many households, the immediate impact has been higher food prices, rising transport costs and declining purchasing power.

That is a much harder political proposition when people have already made significant sacrifices.

For Tinubu, the political test is not only defending his reforms. It is persuading voters to endure their costs before they feel their benefits.

Tinubu’s government points to improving economic indicators as evidence that the reforms are beginning to work.

But many Nigerians experience the economy through what they pay for food, transport and basic household needs.

People don’t vote for GDP growth; they vote based on what they can feel in their own lives, Ojeniyi said.

That gap between government economic arguments and household realities could become one of the defining issues of the election.

Ojeniyi said those networks matter because Nigerian elections are fought through local political structures as much as national campaigns.

I think there is a danger of viewing the 2027 election purely as a referendum on Tinubu, she said.