As campaigns begin in Nigeria, Tinubu’s re-election bid puts his party on trial

As campaigning for January’s elections begins on Wednesday, President Bola Tinubu’s pitch for a second term faces a politically fraught question: are Nigerians better off after more than a decade of rule by his All Progressives Congress?

The APC’s tenure from 2015 to 2026 makes for unhappy reading and Tinubu’s reforms have particularly brought severe pain, Cheta Nwanze, a partner at Nigeria-based risk advisory SBM Intelligence, said.

The gap between improving economic indicators and worsening household finances is likely to define the campaign. Tinubu’s challenge is compounded by the risk that voters will not only judge him on his own record. They will also be looking back at his predecessor’s legacy. He inherited an economy moulded by Buhari, whom he helped propel to power. If the economy is Tinubu’s biggest hurdle, security could prove his most damaging liability. The government says military operations have curbed attacks, made roads safer and allowed more farmers to return to their fields.

Yet violence remains widespread.

For ordinary Nigerians, this election is fundamentally about survival, security … whether families can afford food, whether farmers can safely return to their farms, Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, head of CISLAC/Transparency International Nigeria, said.

The APC swept to power more than a decade ago pledging to defeat Islamist insurgents, curb corruption, and revive an economy hit by low oil prices. Instead, Nigeria slipped into its first recession in 25 years under Buhari, while inflation hit record highs above 33% and growth remained sluggish. Tinubu enters the election campaign weighed down by his record and his party’s, with the opposition arguing that after more than a decade in power, only results now matter. For many voters, the election may hinge on whether life is safer and more affordable now than when the APC first promised change in 2015.

The data tells us the odds are against Tinubu and the only way back is low voter turnout on election day, Nwanze said. However, the opposition remains disunited, which historically have favoured the incumbent.