The Economist: Tinubu may win 2027 election despite insecurity, economic hardship

The Economist has projected that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu may secure a second term in 2027, despite insecurity, rising living costs and dissatisfaction with his administration.

The London-based magazine argued that public anger alone might not be enough to remove an incumbent in Nigeria. It cited the fragmented opposition, religious and regional loyalties, political structures and low voter participation in troubled areas as factors that could favour Tinubu.

As long as the security crisis remains unresolved and economic growth, which is expected to hit 4.1% this year, does not translate into concrete improvements in Nigerians’ daily lives, many voters will remain disappointed. Yet few will use the ballot box to express their disappointment.

The publication noted that religious identity could also influence voters, and that Tinubu and Vice-President Kashim Shettima, both Muslims, could appeal to voters in northern Nigeria, which has the largest concentration of registered voters in the country.

The paper added that “plenty may swallow whatever bad feelings they have about their day-to-day struggles and vote for their ‘son’.” It also noted that the fact that he is a son of the South-West would count in the President’s favour, even among those disappointed with his administration.

The publication said prolonged hardship could also encourage people to depend more on relatives and local networks rather than the state, potentially dampening the political impact of economic grievances.